Syed Hasan Habib
Water is fundamental for life as it supports ecosystems and economies. Yet of all water available on earth, only 3 percent is sweet and fit for human consumption. The water is essential to many sectors, its management must consider the interest of all stakeholders; farmers, herders, common citizens, industry, etc. Countries try to control water sources for irrigation and hydropower. The water availability is becoming insufficient and the competition amongst the stakeholders becomes a conflict within and outside countries. Also, water insecurity leads to political, economic, institutional, and cultural aspects leading to enhanced conflict risks.
Water scarcity affects roughly 40% of the world’s population and, according to predictions by the United Nations and the World Bank, drought could put up to 700 million people at risk of displacement by 2030. Our concern is what that could lead to?
The amount of water is constant in the system. We can drink, irrigate, wash, and bathe, but the water remains on/in land or in the atmosphere. With the booming population, the pressure on governments is increasing for safe water. According to a World Bank report of 1995, ‘many of the wars of the next century (21st Century) will be about water’. Similarly, in 2000, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan suggested that ‘fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and war in the future’.
Trans-Boundary water conflicts
Researchers in the field of water conflicts agree that transboundary water-related conflicts have substantially grown in the past few decades. Enhanced international focus has been on water quantity and infrastructure (construction of water channels, dams, and diversions) that could lead to conflicts. The presence of national and international treaties between two or more nations and the institutional capacity to deal with instances of conflicting interests between nations reduces the risk. The latter underscores the importance of continued international support to encourage transboundary water-related cooperation, framed by transboundary water treaties.
Shared water resources present extensive opportunities for potential disputes between water users within countries (provinces or regions) and between two or more states. The majority of the world’s 310 transboundary river basins are shared between two or more countries. Disputes and collaborations can occur depending on whether decisions affecting water scarcity, quality, and pollution are made unilaterally or jointly. Groundwater aquifers and reserves are similarly at heightened risk of unsustainable consumption, pollution, and uninformed perceptions of the quantity and quality of available resources.
Governance structures that are used to manage resources sustainably may no longer be operating effectively. Lack of knowledge and monitoring technologies on the quantity and quality of remaining groundwater can also lead to unsustainable water withdrawals leading to imbalances leading to conflicts.
At the same time, shared interdependence over scarce water creates opportunities for long-term repeated interactions that provide the impetus for cooperation, conflict resolution, and peace building. Between 1945 and 1999, cooperative events related to water issues outnumbered conflicts by more than two-to-one, and none of the 1,800 disputes in transboundary basins over those years led to formal war. Strong water management institutions, such as basin treaties are key to creating opportunities to reduce conflict risks.
Impact on water availability due to climate change
The impacts of climate change affect not only the availability, quality, and distribution of water but also affect governance and migration, multiplying conflict risks. Certain regions that are naturally arid and experience droughts will continue to get drier, while areas with moist climates are expected to get wetter. Despite this imprecise rule of dry gets drier and wet gets wetter, climate scientists expect greater weather extremes and variability across many regions of the world.
Almost 75 percent of natural disasters between 2001 and 2018 were water-related, including droughts and floods (UNESCO 2020). Both acute and chronic climate events alter the volume, timing, and location of precipitation and shift the geographic distribution of water.
Climate change generates instability through its impact on climate-sensitive activities and interactions with socioeconomic and political stresses that create or escalate tensions. In Syria, for instance, protracted drought in the 2000s coupled with poor water management reduced crop yields, food insecurity, and loss of agricultural livelihoods. The subsequent civil war further contributed to forced displacement and water insecurity.
Water as weapon
Water-related disputes are not new. The oldest conflict happened in 2500 BC, the Lagash-Umma dispute in ancient Sumeria over water and irrigation led to a century of war. Water was used as a weapon in besieged cities, where water supply was either cut off or deliberately polluted to weaken the enemy population. In recent years several cases have emerged that could lead to water wars. The water can be used in several cases.
The Indian hydrologists are of the view that several Chinese storage dams on River Brahmaputra (also called River Jumna) can be used to flood the infrastructure of eastern Indian states, in case of war. Recently, the Indian release of water in the River Chenab can, in case of war, be used to affect the terrain to their advantage. The Bambawali-Ravi-Badian link canal (in short the BRB) was used in 1965 as an effective defense line by the Pakistan army.
In the West Bank, the Palestinians rely on springs for drinking water as almost one-fifth of the population is not connected to a water network. Though Israel handed over parts of West Bank territory to Palestinians in December 1995, it kept control over the sources of underground water. Today, if Palestinians want to drill new wells, they must first get permission from Israel. By contrast, none of the 144 Israeli settlements in the West Bank have water shortages. When water negotiators meet, Palestinians focus almost exclusively on water rights. They blame their water shortage on the excess consumed by settlers.
The modern wars remain focused on urban centers. It is here that the denial or diversion of water can impact the outcome. It can also be an indirect consequence of the conflict. For example, in Iraq during the Gulf War, the Allied troops bombed all the power stations shutting down both water treatment and sewage pumping. As an indirect consequence, thousands of infants died due to poor hygiene. Malaysia, which supplies about half of Singapore’s water, threatened to cut off that supply in 1997 after Singapore criticized its government policies. In Africa, relations between Botswana and Namibia have been severely strained by Namibian plans to construct a pipeline to divert water from the shared Okavango River to eastern Namibia.
Recently during war, the Russian forces have repeatedly attacked enemy water infrastructure, while the Ukraine intentionally flooded some areas to slow Russia’s initial invasion. The Nova Kakhovka dam collapse (June 2023) is probably a new addition to the list of such incidents, though on a larger scale than previously seen in this war.
Nova Kakhovka Dam collapse in Ukraine June 2023
Ten case studies of water-related conflict are listed below:
- Dispute over water in the Nile Basin: The Nile Basin features significant conflict over access to and rights over water resources among its eleven riparian countries. With the filling of the new Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia, the chances of crisis are even greater.
- Water shortages and public discontent in Yemen: As a consequence of severe mismanagement, Yemen’s water availability is declining dramatically and causing serious internal conflict.
- Turkey, Syria, and Iraq- conflict over the Euphrates-Tigris: The Euphrates-Tigris Basin is shared between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, with Iran comprising parts of the Tigris basin. Since the 1960s, unilateral irrigation plans altering the flows of the rivers, coupled with political tensions between the countries, have strained relations in the basin.
- Transboundary water disputes between Afghanistan and Iran: Afghanistan’s efforts to harness the waters of the Helmand River and the Harirud to support post-conflict reconstruction and development have alarmed Iran. The Iranian government perceives Afghan agricultural expansion and dam construction as threats to water security in its eastern and northeastern provinces.
- Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt: Egypt is using more water than its internal renewable resources – mainly based on Nile freshwater inflows. Water stress in Egypt will increase due to rapid population growth and rising temperatures. This will put severe strains on Egypt’s economy and lead to internal strife.
- Dam projects and disputes in the Mekong River Basin: The Mekong Basin is witnessing an enormous expansion of dam-building for hydropower generation, especially in China and Laos. The countries downstream fear the negative impacts from greater flooding to seasonal lack of water.
- Dispute over water in the Cauvery Basin in India: The long-standing conflict over water from the Cauvery River between the Indian states Karnataka and Tamil Nadu has recently resurfaced. The implications are not only legal battles but also violent protests.
- Droughts, livestock prices, and armed conflict in Somalia: Frequent droughts in Somalia put significant pressure on pastoral livelihoods. Herders have to sell more of their livestock, it lowers livestock prices and loss of income.
- Water privatization in Cochabamba, Bolivia: In 2000, the privatization of drinking water in Cochabamba incurred violent protests and escalated into the so-called ‘Water War of Cochabamba’, killing several people. Eventually, the city’s water was re-nationalized.
- Indian water projects on three western Rivers of the Indus Water Treaty
The controversial Baghliar dam on River Chenab
The two sides have been making conflicting arguments about water use since the mid-2000s. India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken a tougher public line, since 2014. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi even said in 2019 that India would stop “every drop” of water in the Rivers Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas (the Indus Waters Treaty assigns these to India) from flowing into Pakistan.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has invoked the treaty’s disagreement resolution provisions three times. For the first time, Pakistan asked the World Bank to appoint a neutral expert to address concerns about the Baghiliar Dam on the Chenab River in India-held Kashmir. The neutral expert-approved India’s plans in 2007 with technical conditions. Pakistan then asked the World Bank to convene a court of arbitration to opine on India’s plans for a hydroelectric project on the Kishenganga-Neelum. The court’s verdict in 2013 did not fully side with either country. Finally, Pakistan’s objections to Ratle project (Indian dam on the Chenab). Pakistan first asked the World Bank to appoint another court of arbitration on these matters in 2016, India wanted to refer to a neutral expert.
Recently, India has refused to agree to the World Bank process creating a very dangerous precedence.
Conclusion
Changing the narrative on water security is important, because only then can one move away from thinking of water as a source of conflict, and recognize it as a tool for cooperation. The situation is grim and could become alarming. Looking to the future, attention ought to be redrawn to address the world’s more urgent water challenges. Investment and expertise could be better harnessed to focus on water management, such as effectively providing clean water to areas where it is unavailable and ensuring more sustainable water use. The mechanisms for water conflict resolution and management be aggressively developed and supported to avoid wars. Most importantly, there is a need to change our lifestyle to protect our planet.
Syed Hasan Habib is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Business Management, Karachi & Chairman, Karachi Council on Foreign Relations. Email: hasan.habib@iobm.edu.pk
