Dr. Bushra Batool
Myanmar, a strategically Southeast Asian country, has been undergoing political turbulence for years now and the challenges of instability and insecurity have spilled over across borders into China and India. The military junta who seized power in 2021 in a coup d’état (stroke of state), has lost control of several towns and security outposts in the country’s border areas in the hands of Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), a coalition of rebel groups.
The 3BHA, which includes the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army, launched a huge offensive against junta positions in various regions last October in an operation named Operation 1027. This operation enabled the 3BHA to receive rapid gains in terms of seizing towns and military outposts. The concern for China in the entire situation is the capture of important border crossings with China by those rebel groups, who even threatened to push the military out of northern Shan State altogether.
The offensive has energized the nationwide armed struggle to overthrow the military regime and fighting has spread to many parts of the country. According to the United Nations (UN) reports, more than half a million people have been displaced in different parts of Myanmar due to this surge of fighting, with a total of 2 million displaced since the coup. This creates a refugee crisis in neighboring China and India when the latter is already reluctant to accept refugees due to the already existing instability in the state of Manipur, engulfed with ethnic violence over illegal immigration from Myanmar. India, despite the Western pressure, has also been providing developmental and security aid to the Burmese junta while keeping its lines of communication with the rebels open.
In this scenario, China’s position is a little complicated. China has strong ties with the coalition of Myanmar rebel groups which also prompted dozens of nationalist pro-junta Burmese protesters to gather outside the Chinese Embassy in Yangon, Myanmar, with banners requesting the Chinese government not to extend its support to northern terrorist groups. In parallel, China also keeps the Burmese junta in confidence. The junta spokesman refused to critic China over the embassy protest matter and soon after that, China was seen conducting joint naval drills with the military junta-led government of Myanmar.
China is worried about intensifying insecurity fueled along its borders due to the rebel offensive. Beijing has called for a cease-fire and has said the warring parties should try to resolve their differences through dialogue. In an effort to ease tensions, China brokered an agreement between the Myanmar military and the alliance of the armed resistance groups, the 3BHA or Northern Alliance, in Kunming, China. The two sides had agreed to pull their troops back from the frontlines and the Myanmar military to agree on formally recognizing the MNDAA as the government of the Kokang special region. From the China’s perspective, the important development was to ensure that China’s interests in Myanmar were not harmed and that there would be reopening of the overland trade between Myanmar and China, which was closed due to the fighting that followed Operation 1027.
The settlement however proved to be short-lived and another wave of tensions arose followed by rebel forces capturing the Myanmar town of Myawaddy, a key trading outpost near the Thai border. This also prompted a stream of refugees into Thailand, engulfing another Southeast Asian country into trouble. Beijing has worked to push both the junta and the rebels to the negotiating table, but the results have been viewed as limited.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted its second live-fire drill along China’s border with Myanmar in April, signaling Beijing’s heightened concerns over its neighbor’s deteriorating security situation. Earlier in the month, the PLA’s official website PLA Daily reported that the war in Myanmar has “seriously threatened” the security and stability of the border region. It further added that the Chinese army would take “all necessary measures” to protect the safety of its people.
China for the third time, since the launch of the offensive by the rebel alliance, has conducted live-fire drills along China’s border with Myanmar and holds great motivation to maintain peace in Myanmar. In addition, the 3BHA and Myanmar military junta are also not in a position to afford China’s alienation or ignore what China wishes to achieve vis-à-vis Myanmar. Notwithstanding, tensions are looming large and the warring parties are yet to make arrangements to accommodate one another in the regional equation.
China’s anxieties about the situation in Myanmar are likely to grow, at least until there is a settlement between the rebel groups and military junta about territorial controls. China’s utmost objective is to secure its strategic and commercial interests. Stringent Western sanctions against the junta and the support it enjoys not only from its neighboring India but also Russia and the military exercises with China make the power balance of the region precarious. The situation, if not sorted out, could take the region to a flash point where it could lead to a humanitarian and security catastrophe.
The author is a Research Officer at Rabita Forum International (RFI).
