Ambassador Syed Hasan Habib
“Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not”
The above quote amply fits the Israeli Prime Minister. He is limitlessly pursuing the destruction of all possible threats without any plan for the day after. The daily Israeli bombing and military campaign has killed over 45,000 Palestinians. It is starting campaigns that it could not finish. There is a total disregard for human rights and international laws in the Israeli campaign in Gaza and Lebanon. It is not stopping despite a very vocal international civil society as it has few strong supporters. Even European states are openly distancing themselves from Israeli genocide in Gaza and Lebanon. Except for the US which is its strongest supporter and defender, no civilized nation is fully backing it.
Iran’s relations with Palestine go back to the late 1970s when the PLO supported the Islamic Revolution against the Shah’s regime. It openly extends all possible support to Hamas. The 1st October retaliation by Iran toward Israel was in response to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah which was ordered by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The strike was a message and an effective hit on Israeli military and intelligence targets. It was a very effective hit that avoided civil causality and conveyed a strong message of Iran’s will and capability. Currently, Israel and Iran are engaged in a competition that involves assassinations and bombing strikes against each other’s assets. In that competition, it looks like Israel had the upper hand, up until. The Iranians had promised that they were going to strike in the wake of the 31st July assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Henia in Tehran. The delay in the response drew criticism and hidden ridicule from some quarters. It looked like the Iranians were very weak. Then came the assassination of Hasan Nasrallah, a close ally of Iran. Unlike the World that regards Hamas, Hizbullah, and Hootis as Iranian proxies, Iran itself considers them as allies.
So they retaliated with 180 ballistic missiles of which a good number got through the Iron Doom, David’s Sling, Arrow, and THAAD anti-missile batteries, etc., US and its allies’ radars, aircraft, showcasing the Iranians’ resolve and technology. The conflict is escalating as Israelis who were earlier winning have now been forced to opt for an unpopular response. The Israelis recklessly targeted civilian populations, while the Iranians hit the military and intelligence facilities killing only one person that too by falling debris. Sending a clear message to the World to look at what Israel is doing in Beirut, southern Lebanon, and Gaza and to stop the Israeli heavy-handedness.
Escalation
The Israelis will retaliate and the Iranians have said they’re going to counter retaliate and of course, the Israelis will counter-counter retaliate. One can ask when this is going to stop. It’s very important to understand that the Israelis are talking about going after targets like; the leadership, nuclear facilities, oil fields/oil refineries, and maybe civilians. The Iranians made it clear if its oil fields or refineries are targeted, they will attack oil refineries and oil fields throughout the Middle East.
Such a move can have serious consequences for the world economy. The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in shuttle diplomacy has covered all the regional countries conveying a message that any country providing any support to Israeli or US moves against Iran will be responded to in the same manner. Israel feeling a perfect moment is going ahead into war, it dreams of dragging the US into a war with Iran. That is the worst possible scenario.
Iran nuclear
The US President Trump pulling out of the JCPOA provided Iran an opportunity to speed up enough enriched Uranium that is enough few bombs. This would not have happened if the US had stayed in the JCPOA and improved its relations with Iran. The opposite happened due to pressure from Israel, Arabs, and the pro-Israeli lobby in the United States.
Despite the full-blown propaganda about Iran’s nuclear program, there is no conclusive evidence of its weapon program. Iranians claim that following a binding Fatwa by Imam Khomeini, they will not make Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).
The US, basing its evidence on the dissident Iranian groups, does not accept Iranian claims of following a civil nuclear program. According to US sources, Iran had the nuclear weapons design in 2003. This was revealed when Israel allegedly captured Iran’s nuclear archive documents in 2018. It suggests that Tehran’s weapons designs were already in advanced form, two decades ago. That design employed characteristics similar to France’s AN-52 and was about two feet in diameter. A nuclear warhead of that size could be carried on an Iranian Shahab-3 ballistic missile. This was assumed as clear evidence that Iran was seeking a ballistic missile-deliverable warhead from the start. Yet, we may head towards an Iraq-2-type situation where we destroy a country and do not find evidence of WMD. In the case of Iraq WMD, the evidence was collected through the dissidents.
The International Atomic Energy Agency determined in 2015 that Iran already had a compacted lightweight weapon design provided by a Russian nuclear weapons designer. This was the Iranian weapon design among other features had “multipoint initiation”an advanced design technique. Iran is accused of having already done preliminary testing of this design more than 20 years ago. According to US sources, Tehran is now in a position to produce and deploy a missile-deliverable weapon in a matter of months, maybe less. After all, they are working in a war-like situation.
Aware of Israeli or US intentions, Iran will protect its nuclear assets making the job as hard as possible. In case of escalation, it may rescind the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Others like Turkyie, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt may follow suit. This will be a major dent in the already fragile disarmament regime.
Enter Russia
It’s a quasi-nuclear option that the Iranians have. As the region is already on the escalation ladder, this could lead to a catastrophe. Iran and Russia are about to enter into a mutual defense pact. The Russians have publicly warned Prime Minister Netanyahu to stay out of Lebanon. President Putin has reportedly declined to take a phone call from Netanyahu. The Russian naval ships in the Mediterranean had intercepted 13 Israeli missiles aimed at Lebanon; maybe they were coming a little too close to the Russian Navy.
The new Russians-Iranians Alliance possibly includes the Chinese and the North Koreans as all these feel threatened by the United States. They’re coming closer together as they all understand that they have to play hardball with the United States and with Israel. Russia will probably not like Iran to have the A-bomb but will provide all support to it in case of a defensive war.
US-Israeli nexus
The United States and Israel are conjoined twins. So on 14th April, when the first time the Iranians struck Israel the US played a key role in fending off Iranian missiles and drones. Again on 1st October the United States clearly again played a strong role in fending off the Iranian attack. It can be easily assumed that a lot of US taxpayer money is used in the Israeli war efforts. After all new fancy missile system costs dear and maintaining them in war-like situations is even costlier.
After the killing of the leadership and cadres of Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel and all its supporters are talking about this great opportunity that’s presented itself to remake the Middle East. All the senseless killings are not going to solve the problem in Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah are not going away. In Gaza, as we all know, they have not decisively defeated Hamas they’ve not even come close. Further, they’ve not rescued the hostages.
Many in the World think that the US controls Netanyahu. In fact, it is Netanyahu who is controlling Biden. If you look at US-Israeli relations over time, there is a huge amount of evidence that Israel and the United States were at loggerheads on different issues. Not always but sometimes, they had a common interest in pursuing the same policy. But there were many periods in history when both were following diametrically opposite goals. Most of the time Israel won. It was because of the power of the Jewish lobby in the US.
A look at the recent appearance of Netanyahu to the US Congress, where he was applauded and even encouraged for genocide. One may ask, where is the American national interest? Further, one recalls June 1967, when Israeli jets attacked and destroyed the USS Liberty and an American surveillance ship on the high seas and killed 34 sailors and 300 injured. Israel was let off lightly due to the power of the lobby, pure and simple. President London B. Johnson (LBJ) could not resist the lobby. It was during LBJ’s time that Israel acquired nuclear technology that the US never admitted.
The present World is divided into two camps namely the Good guys and the Bad guys. The US and Israel are the good guys. The rest of the Middle East and Muslims are not good guys.
Conclusion
The current situation between Iran and Israel is very tense. Any irresponsible act can push the region into war. Such a war has the potential to spill to a wider region. Netanyahu is clinging to power by the teeth and is fully aware that the cession of hostility will be his end. Iran is trapped in its revolutionary rhetoric and thus both find it hard to back down. Someone should bring sanity to this chaotic World. There is an urgent need for the UN and peace-loving nations to unite and push for peace.
With Gaza totally decimated the Muslim Ummah is in shock as OIC and Muslim leadership are silent. There is a need by the Islamic bloc to pursue peace proactively and then reconstruction of Gaza.
The writer is Chairman of the Pakistan Council on Foreign Relations and Senior Fellow at the Institute of Business Management, Karachi.
