Russia-NK-China alliance-dynamics-significance-future

Ambassador (R) Hasan Habib
The prevailing World Order that the US and the West brought in place in the post-World War II era, was based on liberal democratic values and neoclassical economics. It promised to peace and shared prosperity to the mankind. It kept geopolitical order and a semblance of peace in the world as the two super powers avoided direct conflict. The World only witnessed proxies and localized conflicts.
Since President Trump’s 1st rule the US itself is undermining the prevailing order and this system is on the verge of collapse. President Trump’s second administration may further undermine many core purposes of the multi-lateral order including free trade, collective security, climate change to name a few.
Trump’s second term will also create a World leadership vacuum that may lead to geopolitical chaos. The question that emerges from this bleak scenario is can the international community reform its politico-economic institutions to deliver essential services to ordinary people and strengthen the international, regional and national order.
Reaction from the non-capitalist camp
The Capitalist West was basking in success and newfound wealth in the post-Cold War period. Countries outside the Wests’ friendly circle like China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. felt insecure and threatened. They needed a security umbrella for protection against the US-supported expansionist and the belligerent West. The Warsaw countries were falling one by one to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). When Ukraine fell to the far right, Russians panicked and invaded it to secure its borders.
While the World focused on the Russia-DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or North Korea) military cooperation and what DPRK offered (troops and weapons) to Russia, it ignored the emerging Russia-North Korea-China alliance. The new cooperative relationship also ensured the Chinese energy security in the form of Russian oil and gas. The emerging alliance posed a serious threat to the US and its regional allies like South Korea and Japan. This alliance is impacting regional and global peace.
Is it an alliance?
President Putin called China an ally and North’s Kim Jong Un has called Russia an ally. Russia and DPRK have a formal treaty. Russia-China military behavior shows all signs of an alliance such as security talks and joint military exercises. On the other hand, Pyongyang has treaties with both Russia and China that include mutual defense clauses.
Around 2017, Russia and China declared a joint approach to Korean security issues that has essentially endured into the present. Both Russia and China have long ignored US/UN sanctions on North Korea and are its primary partners in trade, economic, and military exchanges. This practically translates into an informal trilateral alliance. While China is not very comfortable with many acts of DPRK especially those leading to its nuclear weapon-missile program, it will not show its reaction openly.
China’s economic leverage over North Korea is being reduced by Russo-DPRK-enhanced trade, aid, and capital flows from Russia. China continues to support North Korea through $2.3 billion trade (2023). Yet, the alliance raises the possibility of Russia and/or North Korea taking more aggressive unilateral steps in Ukraine and South Korea.
China’s diminished leverage on North Korea and Russia
China has presented itself as a neutral actor in the Ukraine war. It is clear that without the economic support by China (purchase of Russian oil and gas) and provision of some dual-use goods and components, Russia could not continue its war. Yet China has little real influence over Russia.
The eroding of China’s economic-political leverage over North Korea and its neutrality in the Ukrainian war is worrisome as it reduces Chinese importance, internationally. The world expects China to restrain North Korea’s from its aggressive policies.
Post-Ukrainian war gung-ho North Korea will be less prone to listen to China. Beijing is well aware that the presence of dual-capable North Korean missiles, better air defenses, and potentially dangerous nuclear weapons will force Washington and others to reciprocate by moving more US dual or nuclear-capable IRBMs to the region. The advanced radars like the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) system is already aggressively watching China, limiting its air freedom. Further, the US may approve of its allies’ proliferation, letting Seoul and Tokyo go nuclear. China’s desire for no more nuclear states in Northeast Asia will suffer. Thus the North Korean aggressive missile program and nuclearization make it a “strategic liability” and a clear and present threat of undesired proliferation in the Chinese neighborhood.
This conflict of interests between the treaty allies exacerbates Chinese national security concerns, particularly regarding the United States and its allies’ aggressive moves in the Indo-Pacific area. The US has already ramped up its military presence on and around the Korean Peninsula by the regular deployment of strategic US assets to the region, China is very uncomfortable with it. China’s escalation control over North Korea and Russia has also diminished and it is trapped in an arms race across Northeast Asia. The Chinese neighbors around the South China Sea, with US urging and support, are arming to the teeth and present a serious threat to the Chinese economic survival.
North Korean gains from the Ukrainian war
Russia’s dependence on some 15,000 North Korean troops and weapons draws international attention to the security of the Korean peninsula. According to some estimates, North Korea has provided Russia with 20,000 shipping containers’ load of weapons, including artillery shells, ballistic missiles, rocket systems, and long-range howitzers. Further, North Korea is ready to send still more troops to Russia filling the manpower gaps in its military adventure. The DPRK has received valuable battle experience and a chance to test its weapons in actual war theater. This will be an immense gain for its army and will lead to improved efficiency of its otherwise low tech weapons. It has received up to $5.5 billion in payments from Russia. North Korea could earn up to $572 million annually through troop deployment if this arrangement continues.
The main beneficiary of war payments from Russia is the North Korean defense industry leading further plans for the mass production of attack drones and better missiles (IRBMs). Also, the DPRK military is gaining valuable battlefield experience, help in its satellite program, upgrade of air defense systems as well as large amounts of oil and food from Russia. It all translates into enhanced North Korea’s deterrence capabilities which may embolden it to take more provocative risks vis-à-vis Seoul and Toyo.
Russian gains and attitude
Russia by receiving North Korean arms and troops, and providing Pyongyang with more oil than the annual cap set by UNSC resolutions, has effectively abandoned arms control and non-proliferation norms. Further, Moscow is highly likely to agree to DPRK requests for transfer of weapons technologies. Although, the war in Ukraine has depleted much of their old weapon stockpiles, both Russia and DPRK are poised to accelerate the production of newer and better weapons vital for modern war.
China’s allies regularly make nuclear threats, which is serious. The frequent, Russian, nuclear threats throughout 2024 serve to deter the West from helping Ukraine. China’s opposition to the first use of nuclear weapons has promoted its image as a responsible nuclear weapons state. However, its allies reveal potentially disturbing trends. Russia considers its nuclear weapons a symbol of its superpower status. Russia has loosened the conditions of its deterrence and if faced a defeat in Ukraine, through visible Western backing, severe internal pressures may result in nuclear use.
Conclusion
Examining the Russia-NK-China alliance and deterrence dynamics closely, we find that these powers are trapped in their obsession to exhibit great power status. China sees the alliance as a counterbalance to the US interference in the Taiwan strait and the South China Sea. While Russia looks to East Europe as its erstwhile sphere of influence being encroached by the NATO.
It appears that the year 2025 will be a watershed year for the resurgence of the global far right. Trump’s administration will embolden extreme-right parties around the world. Trump’s new “trade war” may trigger a de-globalization shock leading to hyper-individualism, xenophobia, unexpected migration, and a newer approach to climate change. All this is disturbing and worrisome for China and Russia.
If the World misunderstands or ignores these emerging new three states’ alliances and the deterrence dynamics, the peril to peace and security would be unimaginable.
The author is a Senior Fellow at Institute of Business Management (IoBM) & Co-Chairman of Pakistan Council on Foreign Relations.