American University history professor Allan Lichtman is one of the few public intellectuals who stuck to his analysis that Donald Trump was going to win the 2016 election, despite projections made by big data pollsters like Nate Silver. Lichtman relies on a “13 key” system consisting of 13 true or false questions. If six of those questions are “false,” then the incumbent party loses the election.
According to Business Insider, those historical keys contain statements like “There is no significant third party or independent campaign” and “The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.” He elaborates on them further in his book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House.” In any case, the Democrats failed Lichtman’s criteria.
For those who are understandably bummed out by Lichtman being right, he has another prediction, although this one isn’t based on any tried and tested system. “I’m going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based on a system; it’s just my gut. They don’t want Trump as president, because they can’t control him.
He’s unpredictable. They’d love to have Pence an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
I mean, it doesn’t take a post-graduate degree to make the observation that Trump is volatile and unpredictable. That being said, Lichtman isn’t the only academic to raise the possibility. The Independent reported that University of Utah law professor Christopher Peterson believes that a possible impeachment could hinge on Trump’s janky business dealings, particularly the pending fraud case against Trump University. “In the United States, it is illegal for businesses to use false statements to convince consumers to purchase their services,” Peterson said. “The evidence indicates that Trump University used a systemic pattern of fraudulent representations to trick thousands of families into investing in a program that can be argued was a sham.
Fraud and racketeering are serious crimes that legally rise to the level of impeachable acts.” Then there’s reports that the FBI is probing Trump’s possible links to Russia. Take your pick on any of the impeachable offenses sticking to a guy who won the highest office in the land after spending his entire life being out for no one but himself. It’s highly improbable that the Orange Mussolini will get the boot anytime soon, but it’s a fun thing to think about.
Professor who predicted Trump’s win now predicts his impeachment
