Prof. Dr. Talat Ayesha Wizarat
Pakistan – Iran relationship holds significance for the two nations and to a large extent these relations also determine the dynamics of regional politics. Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan. The two countries were able to demarcate their border in 1958-59 fully mapping the border and marking the area with pillars. This was possible in view of political understanding which existed between the two neighboring states.
After the Islamic revolution took place in Iran this understanding should have further consolidated but this expectation did not materialize. There were two reasons for this trend; Iran viewed with suspicion the close understanding which had existed between Pakistan and Iran under the Shah. Another factor was that Iran’s foreign policy became independent under the new government, whereas Pakistan’s foreign policy became too dependent on the US under Zia’s regime.
After the fall of Zia there was a brief period of political instability in Pakistan, the focus of following governments was mainly on internal challenges. These governments were unable to steer the foreign policy away from dependence on the West. However, in 2016 when Pakistan decided to join CPEC both India and US decided to come together to scuttle BRI and its flagship project CPEC. India is a strategic ally of US and is a partner of US in all its plans to destabilize the region.
The US has imposed sanctions on Iran but despite that India was allowed to build Chahbahar port in southern Iran a few hundred miles to the west of Gwadar. Chahbahar became a center serving India’s intelligence network. A serving Indian naval officer on deputation to RAW was caught in Baluchistan province. Kulbhushan was responsible for espionage as well as terrorism.
The idea was to scuttle CPEC and also to promote secession of Baluchistan which is believed to be common objective of India and it’s strategic ally the US. The US wants to keep Pakistan dependent on IMF and curtail other options like CPEC which would add to prosperity. Daniel S. Markey in his book ‘No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad’ has shed light on long term US objectives regarding Pakistan.
Iran had also given India the project to construct a network of roads connecting Chahbahar with Iran’s northern border. Now that project has been given to China hopefully this step would lead to a reduction in Indian influence in Iran. However, as long as Chahbahar is allowed to be used by India their machinations will continue.
Pakistan has been pursuing policies which have created mis-perceptions about its role in the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Pakistan has declared that it is not part of naval coalition built by US to take action against Ansar Allah of Yemen. In that case there was no need for Pakistan to send its war ships to the Red Sea. Pakistan has also conducted naval exercises with members of US coalition this could send wrong signal to states like Iran.
The US ambassador and UK High Commissioner have been visiting Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), Gwadar and other strategic areas in Pakistan. There is nothing wrong in this but misunderstandings can arise because the US and the British hostility towards CPEC is known to all. Also terrorism in GB and Gwadar registered an upward trend following their visits.
This could be a coincidence but it should be taken seriously by law enforcing agencies in view of these countries known antagonism towards CPEC and their desire to destabilize Afghanistan and Iran. US requested Pakistan to provide them with military bases on its soil. We need to seriously ponder over the reasons as to why US desired to build its military bases in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces of Pakistan.
There can be two interpretations of this strategy; under the garb of fighting terrorism US and UK could launch operations to scuttle CPEC. There is another interpretation which also carries serious implications for regional politics. China according to my understanding tries to multiply its options; In view of increasing US influence in Pakistan, China decided to build a road through Wakhan region of Afghanistan going all the way to an Iranian port in Southern Iran.
This would connect China, Afghanistan and Iran. This route would be a little longer than the one through Pakistan but would have increased China’s options. The US military bases in Pakistan could also be used to scuttle this new route or ignite a war between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. If a war were to take place between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan who would be the beneficiaries? Arms manufacturers stand to gain from this development. States trying to block China’s access to Indian Ocean and also scuttle CPEC would also benefit. Needless to say that the three neighboring countries would be major losers. By destroying each other they would strengthen their mutual enemies. There would be increase in poverty and all the three states would become more dependent on outsiders.
One factor which stands out is obvious. In case of growing tension in the region all regional states will suffer. Russia and China might also face some adverse consequences but that would be nothing compared to the fallout for the three neighbors. The three states will jeopardize the future of their people, will also become dependent on India and the West and all hopes of future prosperity will vanish. It is clearly not in the interest of regional states to allow tensions to grow.
Conflict reduction should be their objective. China and to some extent Russia can be counted on to provide support in the task of conflict resolution. Pakistan and Iran should initiate dialogue immediately in order to develop mutual confidence. Other confidence building measures can be undertaken i,e creation of mechanisms to allow the dialogue to continue without interruption. In my book ‘ Belt and Road Initiative:
Emerging World Order’ I suggested the creation of institutions in the form of think tanks to deal with crises as they emerge. The most important challenge at present is to restore confidence between Iran and Pakistan. Another step which is required is for Iran to reduce Indian influence in Chahbahar. The network setup by RAW which has been activated by India should be eradicated. Similarly if Iran informs Pakistan of the presence of any anti-Iran network in Baluchistan or elsewhere in Pakistan it should be uprooted. When foreign diplomats in Pakistan or Iran want to visit some region they should be accompanied by law enforcing officers for their protection.
The two countries can sign agreement for sharing of Intelligence information. To reduce the element of competition Iran suggested the linking of Gwadar and Chahbahar. The idea appears to be beneficial for both countries, it needs to be explored further and research needs to be done to understand future implications.
Iran and Afghanistan can be invited to join CPEC converting it into CPEC+. This will give a boost to CPEC and will therefore be beneficial for all. The region is facing many challenges and we stand at a cross road. If Pakistan and Iran learn to make their decisions keeping their own interests in mind it would serve them well. Pakistan should buy cheap oil and gas from Iran without being intimidated by US sanctions. After all the US allowed India to work on various projects in Iran despite the sanctions.
Professor Dr. Talat Ayesha Wizarat is a distinguished scholar in International Relations and Middle Eastern Studies from Pakistan. She currently teaches at IBA, Karachi.
