Prof. Dr. Tanweer Khalid
The India-Pakistan relationship is complex, marked by historical tensions rooted in the partition of British India in 1947. These include a longstanding dispute over Kashmir and multiple wars, though there also have been periods of cooperation and attempts at peace. Thus, relations between the two countries are mired in power politics, making the two countries perennial rivals with competing identities and interests. The bloody partition and the hasty departure of the British had left unresolved territorial disputes, mainly Kashmir, Junagadh, and Sir Creek. This violent partition resulted in large-scale migration and communal violence, setting the stage for a strained relationship.
As we look ahead to the prospects of improved if not fully cordial relations, it is essential to keep in mind the historical, political, and strategic dimensions of the relationship. At the same time, the underlying issues of animosity must remain in focus, as hostility between the two countries stems from political, cultural, social, and economic factors. Kashmir is the main cause of enmity for both India and Pakistan, which is why both countries focus their attention on buying weapons and the latest military technology instead of working for the welfare of their citizens.
Abrogation of Article 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution removed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. It is an important step of the Indian government to strengthen its control over Jammu and Kashmir, despite the escalation of the conflict with Pakistan. The repeal of this Article has become one of the main events affecting the bilateral relations of India and Pakistan, as well as the standpoint of future development of the whole South Asian region, revolutionizing regional security and politics. Revoking the Article has not only worsened relations but heightened diplomatic tensions, followed by armed conflict on the Line of Control (LoC). Pakistan sees the act as a breach of UN resolutions, while India considers it an internal matter with the intention of developing integrated regional states. The official reason of the Indian government is that the special status of Jammu and Kashmir hampered its development and incited separation. This narrative was received by Pakistan as outright hostility and portrayed India as aggressive and a violation of UN Security Council resolutions, inciting brutality against the Kashmiri people. Rivalry between the two states was escalated diplomatically and militarily. Pakistan responded by reducing the level of its relations with India, expelling the Indian High Commissioner, and stopping trade relations as well. The incident brought back the focus on the Kashmir dispute on the international level, and Pakistan tried to mobilize support from countries like China, Malaysia, and Turkey, but others like the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and European States considered it as India’s internal matter. The act led to debates internationally questioning the federation, democracy, and human rights in India, thus putting a new strategic dimension to South Asian affairs, amplifying concerns in an unsteady security environment between the two nuclear powers India and Pakistan. This continued friction in response to disputed developments has not only expanded the lack of trust but also increased the probability of military action in an already unstable region.
The scrapping of Article 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution brought relations between Pakistan and India to the lowest point but there was no global outrage pouring to India’s assertion of its foreign policy muscle and successful diplomacy, while Pakistan is left far behind and requires much more efforts for seeking attention at the diplomatic level. February 2019 initiated the Palwama-Balakot crisis and the Indo-Pak ceasefire agreement on the Line of Control (LoC), bringing the two nuclear-armed neighbors perilously close to a catastrophe. The ceasefire agreement brought temporary relief to the civilian population, but its violations (four attempts at LoC since 2000) indicate no positive development. Rather, the Uri- Palwama-Balakot crisis has set a dangerous precedent of attacking the mainland and posturing for a horizontal escalation. Such actions do not portray better days ahead for both India and Pakistan. Besides the Kashmir problem, strained relations between India and Pakistan have led to issues of terrorism, nuclearization, border disputes, and water disputes. Presently, much depends on the mindset and ideology of the Modi government in India. Since the Modi-led nationalist government has come to power, there has been an increase in communal and religious tensions. The BJP-led government by Narendra Modi is the political offshoot of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) an Indian right-wing Hindu nationalist paramilitary volunteer organization which has an agenda of transforming India by Hindutva, an ideology aiming for the dominance of Hindus. This ideology considers non-Hindus as ‘foreign invaders’ and ‘second-rate citizens’.
The BJP used this ultra-nationalist approach in elections in 2014, 2019, and 2024, and Muslims in India were used as a scapegoat for getting the Hindu vote. The Kashmir conflict became the center of communal tension in the face of the BJP committing to repeal Article 370 and 35A in their election campaign. Since 2019, the Modi government has systematically and aggressively implemented extremist policies against its Muslim minority. This Article provided the basis for the state’s accession to the Indian Union in 1947 but revoking Article 370 and 35A and passing the Citizenship Amendment Act in December 2019 to determine the special privileges of residents of Jammu and Kashmir and allowing non-permanent members to buy properties in the state are affecting the social fabric, provoking extremism in the Indian society and thereby worsening the security situation. Modi’s slavish dedication to Hindutva ideology and anti-Muslim rhetoric is worsening India-Pakistan relations.
Constitutionally, India, the most populous democracy, is a sovereign, socialist, secular, democratic republic, but it is yet to be seen whether it remains a secular, pluralistic democratic state or transforms into a Hindu majoritarian autocracy. Modi describes himself as a Hindu nationalist, and his 2019 election victory is polarizing Indian society. Despite the analysis, Modi’s populist rhetoric, close ties with India’s economic elite, and advocacy of Hindutva account for his unstoppable popularity. He believes in using brute force against minorities to push them to subservience, lending credence to the idea of ‘Indian Fascism’. His approach to Kashmir sees an exponential increase in extrajudicial killings, torture, and custodial deaths accompanied by violence and force. Pakistan and other nations in the region are affected by this extremist mindset of India’s populist leaders. Weak states like Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka are aware of this threat and oppose India’s assertiveness. Training of Tamil terrorists in the 1980s and aiding insurgencies in Pakistan’s Balochistan province are open examples of its brinkmanship. Support for the extremist approach of Indian hardliners like Amit Shah and Subramanyam Jaishankar, who boast of militarily taking back territories from Pakistan, is on the cards. This is to project Modi’s strong man image, which resonates well with his support base.
India-Pakistan ties depend on the mood of the policymakers, which is often fluctuating between acrimony and polemics, which could improve or at least manage a bad situation. At the face of it, India’s obstinacy in not discussing the Kashmir issue because it was already settled by revoking Article 370 in any future talks with Pakistan means no substantive engagement at this stage because the scrapping of the Article continues to fuel animosity, especially along the Line of Control (LoC). This has led to an increase in ceasefire violations on both sides of the border, taking tensions to the lowest level, resulting in insecurity in the region’s security environment. Pakistan’s effort to internationalize the Kashmir issue was hampered because most of the Western democracies, including America, Britain, and France, did not fully condemn India but insisted that both sides must sit down for negotiations. India’s foreign policy muscle and assertion that revoking the article was an internal matter averted global outrage. But, nevertheless, the approach is crucial for South Asian geopolitics because of India-Pakistan relations coming to the lowest ebb. Pakistan cut off diplomatic relations with India and downgraded its diplomacy by deporting the Indian High Commissioner and asking its own High Commissioner to leave New Delhi. Trade also stopped, but since it was insignificant, there was not much adverse effect. The rigid position on both sides made it harder for diplomacy and made relations freeze over. The attack in Pulwama in February 2024 and the Indian military operation of the air strike in Balakot have led to a worsening of relations within a climate of insecurity. India’s successful diplomacy and the sympathy of the US, Russia, and the European States unenhanced in favor of Pakistan. India has increased its economic cooperation with countries that supported its cause and balanced off Pakistan’s efforts as ‘propaganda’.
All this wedged deeper the structural differences pertaining to the Kashmir issue. Animosity between India and Pakistan has made the search for common solutions even more distant. Abrogation of Article 370 has facilitated more violence and armed force with stricter security in Jammu and Kashmir. Insufficient discourse and cooperation between India and Pakistan and the absence of diplomatic relations have prevented regional interaction and collaboration in broader regional issues, including counter terrorism, economic integration, and development, exposing South Asia to long-term instability and poverty. Abolition of Article 370 has aggravated the public and political stance of both countries. In India, this abrogation is the biggest step towards the completion of integration of Jammu and Kashmir, while to Pakistan, it is a devilish attempt against the oppressed Kashmiri people, trampling their right to determine their future. The government of Pakistan has turned to the nations of the world, especially those of the Islamic faith, to voice their support, but the world’s major economies have not aggressively opposed the Act. This lack of support on the international platform has made diplomacy a lonely affair for Pakistan, to which it must pay focused attention.
Keeping in view foreign policy, it needs to be understood that it is a method by which a state interacts with other states to pursue its interests, and a successful foreign policy can bring economic, political, and strategic gains, which can help a state to raise its stature regionally and even globally. Pakistan has pursued a complex foreign policy since its independence, and its Islamic identity, its disputes with India, and its geostrategic location have played a key role in shaping its foreign policy. Unresolved territorial disputes, mainly Kashmir, Junagadh, and Sir Creek, have proved to be permanent sources of tension between India and Pakistan, which have not only caused wars but also have become the reason for nuclearization of the sub-continent.
The intensity of their hostility can be measured by the fact that, well over seven decades, their relations remain hostile. India’s larger size, its military superiority, and occasional claims by Indian leadership to undo the partition of the sub-continent have created a deep sense of insecurity. This fear from India has dominated the mindset of Pakistan’s policymakers, leading the country to do a balancing act by seeking support from other powers. Pakistan’s geostrategic location has also played a key role in shaping its foreign policy. Located at the juncture of important regions of South, West, and Central Asia with India in the East – the second most populous country, China in the North with the world’s largest population, and Afghanistan in its North West, one of the most troubled countries of the world. Former USSR always had close ties with India, but in a sharply divided world politics, Pakistan has now decided to have ties with the communist bloc instead of depending on a few Western sources. Besides, security threats from India have led the military to play a greater role not only in security but in foreign policy as well. In the current context, Pakistan’s relations with India remain confrontational. Since India’s unilateral revocation of Article 370 and 35A in August 2019, the Kashmir issue has assumed centrality in Pakistan’s extra-regional diplomacy. Both countries have also had fierce competition to enhance their respective influence in Afghanistan. Excluding Taliban rule in Afghanistan, from 1996 to 2001, Afghanistan has largely displayed hostility towards Pakistan. Their hostility flared up when Afghanistan put forward its irredentist claim on Pakistan’s territory, in particular KPK and Balochistan, and India extended its wholehearted support to Afghanistan, making it a theatre of proxy war between India and Pakistan. At this stage, we can keep our fingers crossed and wait for the best.
With this historical perspective, prospects of developing India-Pakistan ties are bleak. Recent terrorist acts of hijacking the Jaffer Express in Balochistan, when fingers were pointed out towards India, which has always indulged in espionage activities and supported secessionist elements inside Balochistan and many parts of KPK. Besides, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s podcast that Pakistan is waging a proxy war against India is fuelling the fire to the diplomatic impasse.
Though this is nothing new in the bilateral relations but coming from Narendra Modi at this stage and putting the blame of all that goes wrong in India on Pakistan is shifting the onus and creating obstacles in the resumption of formal talks between the nuclear neighbors. Though low-level diplomatic engagement continues on some issues like renewal of the Kartarpur Corridor agreement, issuance of visas to Sikh pilgrims, and release of stray fishermen in each other’s territorial waters, unless the leadership in India shows willingness to come out of the blame game, normalization of the ties remains bleak.
The author is a former Head of the Department of Political Science, University of Karachi, and presently the Secretary of the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA), Karachi, Pakistan.
