National Conference on “Future Prospects of Regional Connectivity through dialogue in South Asia: Global And Strategic Perspectives”

Organized by Rabita Forum International and the area study centre for Europe of University of Karachi

Session-I

Chair’s opening remarks by Ambassador Qazi M. Khalilullah (R), Executive Director Center for International Strategic Studies Sindh

Mr. Nusrat Mirza, Chairman Rabita Forum International,

Dr. Uzma Shujaat, Acting Director Area Study Center for Europe, University of Karachi,

Dear Students,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Assalam-o-Alaikum,

It is a matter of honour and pleasure for me to Chair Session-I of this very important conference jointly organized by Rabita Forum International and the Area Study Centre for Europe of University of Karachi.

Connectivity, supply chain disruptions, food and energy security have become serious issues impacting most countries around the world due to global power contestation, trade and tech wars, clash between unipolarity and multipolarity, war in Ukraine and Israeli genocide in Gaza.

According to the “2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community”, the US faces an increasingly fragile global order marked by accelerating strategic competition among major powers, more intense and unpredictable traditional challenges, and multiregional conflicts with far-reaching implications. Furthermore, it states that an ambitious China, a confrontational Russia, some regional powers such as Iran and more capable non-state actors are challenging long-standing rules of international system as well US primacy within it.

Bipolarity ended with the end of the Cold War in December 1991. What we are witnessing nowadays is the end of unipolarity and emergence of multipolarity. Peaceful rise of China and resurgence of Russia have successfully promoted a multipolar world, which the US is resisting by any means possible.

Pakistan, therefore, needs to come up with a strategy that would protect its strategic interests, advance economic development and shield it from the fallout of global power contestation.

Pakistan has 559 km long border with China, 2611 km border with Afghanistan, 909 km border with Iran and 3323 km long border with India which includes Line of Control and Working Boundary. Out of these four, China is our time-tested strategic partner and Iron brother, Iran and Afghanistan are brotherly countries and India poses existential threat to Pakistan.

Although Pakistan faces security challenges on its eastern and western borders, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence provides the enabling environment of relative peace and security in South Asia which then facilitates the other elements of national power in nation building to progress unimpeded in their respective spheres.

Pakistan’s priority for regional connectivity for development

Since 1960s, Pakistan has attached priority to regional connectivity for development and shared prosperity. Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD), Karakoram Highway (KKH) and Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) standout as examples of Pakistan’s geo-economic pivot, that predate the coining of this term. CPEC is the latest manifestation of Pakistan’s continued quest for regional connectivity for development or geo-economic pivot.

RCD was established by Pakistan, Iran and Türkiye in 1964 to foster regional cooperation in the fields of economy, technology, culture, trade and industry. It was renamed Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) by the three countries in January 1985. It was expanded with addition of five Central Asian Republics, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan after disintegration of the Soviet Union. 1300 km long Karakoram Highway, also known as Friendship Highway in China, was started in 1962 and completed in 1978.

Since the independence of Central Asian Rebulics in 1991, Pakistan has focused on establishing close relations with these countries in diverse fields including trade, investment, energy, security and connectivity.  Accordingly, Pakistan’s geo-economic pivot is focused on enhancing trade and economic ties through connectivity that links Central Asia to our warm waters.

Regional connectivity through Afghanistan

Exit of foreign forces from Afghanistan in 2021 and re-establishment of Taliban rule in Afghanistan has offered valuable opportunities for completion of the following long-delayed connectivity projects between Pakistan and Central Asia:

1. Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
2. Central Asia-South Asia electricity transmission project (CASA 1000) from Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. According to Ambassador of Kyrgyz Republic to Pakistan, the 1,300 MW CASA-1000 project is likely to be completed this year. It would be helpful in meeting Pakistan’s energy needs and enhance regional cooperation in the energy sector.

Taliban rule in Afghanistan has also offered opportunities to Pakistan for enhancing trade with Russia and Central Asia through the land route. Many noteworthy developments have taken place in this regard recently. Let me highlight some of them:

1. According to Pakistani businessmen, nearly 90% of Pakistani goods exported to Russia by road are being transported through Afghanistan.
2. Last year, trucks carrying goods from Russia and Kazakhstan made their first ever-trips to Pakistan through Afghanistan.

iii.   Russian LPG has been transported to Pakistan through Afghanistan.

1. Pakistan and Uzbekistan have signed MoU for construction of railway link between the two countries through Afghanistan.
2. According to Kazakhastan’s Ministry of Trade, the country wants to develop road and railway links through Afghanistan to connect with South Asia and the Gulf.
3. In April this year, a convoy of NLC Trucks transported goods through Afghanistan to Tajikistan’s capital Dushanbe from Pakistan.

vii. Afghanistan has agreed with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a logistics center or Transit Hub in Herat which will facilitate export of Russian oil to South Asia. Afghanistan also intends to hold talks with Russia in this context.

However, Pakistan is facing many challenges in its relations with Afghanistan, in particular terrorism emanating from the Afghan soil. But the good thing is that both sides remain engaged and are trying to resolve all issues peacefully through dialogue.

Regional connectivity through Iran

In 1995, Pakistan faced shortage of long staple cotton. The then Prime Minister of Pakistan Mohtarma Shaheed Benazir Bhutto, therefore, authorized purchase of 31,000 tons of cotton from Turkmenistan and instructed that it should be transported through western Afghanistan so that a transport corridor for trade could be opened for regional connectivity. However, this could not happen due to instability in western Afghanistan. As a result, the cotton was transported from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Iran.

Two months ago, a convoy of 16 NLC trucks transported Pakistani Kinnow to Russian cities of Derbent and Grozny. The trucks drove through Iran and Azerbaijan to arrive in the Russian cities in 18 days, covering a distance of 6000 km. Prior to that, Pakistan transported Kinnow to Russia through the sea route which took months to reach the destination.

Islamabad Tehran Istanbul (ITI) freight train service was launched on 14 August 2009 on trial basis. The train covers 6,500 kilometers in the three countries and takes up to 15 days one way, which is about 10 days less than the sea route. The train service stopped in 2011, but was restarted with departure from Islamabad on 21 December 2021. The train reached Istanbul with a load of 150 tons of pink salt in 14 days. The ITI train link highlights Pakistan’s potential to provide a trade and transport corridor to all regional countries for trading with Iran, Türkiye and Europe.

Regional connectivity through Pakistan

In conclusion, let me make a few recommendations for realization of Pakistan’s potential as a hub of regional connectivity. In my view, in order to promote regional connectivity for development and for Pakistan to realize its true transit trade potential, it is important to:

1. Attach priority to completion of road, rail and energy projects from Central Asia to Pakistan through Afghanistan.
2. Keeping in view that the government of Pakistan is inclined to reviving trade with India, Pakistan may consider:
3. Offering transit trade access to India for trading with Iran, Türkiye, Europe, Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia and China and offering transit trade access to all these countries through Pakistan to India by road and rail.

Ii.   Pakistan may seek in return transit trade access from India to Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and beyond.

This would be a gamechanger for the entire region and make Pakistan a real transit trade hub. It would also play a pivotal role in integrating the region economically.

Finally, the Government of Pakistan may:

1. Take the lead in setting up a Forum of Regional Countries to come together to discuss ways to realize the potential for regional connectivity for development through dialogue and address challenges at borders, including security issues.
2. Establish a Ministry or Department of Transit Trade and Regional Connectivity in Pakistan to pursue available opportunities on 24/7 basis.

iii.   Appoint a Special Envoy for Connectivity and Transit Trade for engaging with all regional countries.

Let me conclude by stressing that this is the right time to push for regional connectivity by road and rail through Pakistan in all directions as maritime trade routes have become vulnerable due to geopolitical contestation and reaction to Israel’s genocide in Palestine.

Thank You.