Muhammad Usama Khalid
The world is as divisive and uncertain today as has never been observed since the end of the World Wars in the last century. Ever since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been an active threat of nuclear escalation. However, the situation has not reached – that level of nuclear use- yet, but the threat cannot be discounted. Since the disintegration of the former USSR, the world remained aligned with the unipolar global structure reigned by the United States. The crumbling foundations of arms control and disarmament regimes, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the economic and diplomatic rise of China, and the new multilateral arrangements by the emerging states, are all the contributing factors that have significantly been reshaping the global power dynamics in the 21st century.
The uncertainty and the fading trust in the global institutions, exacerbate the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, therefore, this particular threat spectrum of nuclear proliferation and escalation is at the highest levels since the end of the Cold War. In the bipolar world that existed at the time, both states kept each other from attacking each other by competing in small technological battles over delivery vehicles, not the destructive power of their weapons. However, with the withdrawal of the Cold War era’s arms control arrangements both by Russia and the US, the threat of proliferation in the non-conventional domain of atomic weapons is at the highest levels.
The ever-increasing distrust among the states with the weakening of international institutions is the main cause of the erosion of trust in the unipolar global order – in simple terms in the US. This has been fueling the sense of self-reliance in the security realm among the emerging states i.e. there has been critical observation in South Korea and Japan on the extended nuclear deterrence of the US – especially in the post-Russia-Ukraine war. In the region where North Korea is already an established nuclear power, the threat is and will be looming on these two states to adopt a robust defensive mechanism to protect themselves from the lingering sword of extinction because reliance on the third party might not be helpful in the given circumstances.
On the other hand, militarily and conflictingly active regions of the Middle East cannot be ignored whenever the debate occurs over the threat of nuclear escalation. The instance of Libya in the past and in the contemporary era allegations had been leveled, and similar speculations are for Iran. Iran has been accused of enriching the uranium to the level required to develop an atomic bomb. However, the Israeli factor in this context cannot be disregarded because it is the major instigator of threat to the theocratic regime in the hostile region. Though, despite several attempts to halt the Iranian nuclear program by the United States and Israel, Iran has abstained from developing the nuclear weapon, its ability to acquire it cannot be discounted.
Contemporarily, the weakening of the existing arms control and disarmament regimes is the primary reason for increasing the threat of global proliferation. Commencing from the collapse of the Iran Nuclear Deal (commonly known as JCPOA) in 2018, the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, the cessation of talks on the New START since 2021, US withdrawal from Open Skies Treaty (OST) in 2020, and the unresolved deadlock on the proposed Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT). The larger sense of mistrust among each other on the global political spectrum resulted in the states’ disassociation from such confidence-building measures (CBMs). Emerging powers are also questioning the concept of the deterrence umbrella in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine because in that case, the invader is the mammoth nuclear-possessing force, while the victim is a non-nuclear armed state. Ukraine the victim of Russian aggression once inherited the USSR’s nuclear weapons which they gave away in 1994 in return for the security assurances of its territorial sovereignty by the US, Britain, and Russia itself.
At this current juncture, where every state and region is in a hostile mode in one way or the other, security stabilization is hard to maintain. Erosion of trust in the dying Global Unipolar hegemon US, weakening of non-proliferation regimes and the evolving shift in the global world order are coercing states to think differently when it comes to their own survivability, security, and territorial integrity. The ineffectiveness of international institutions has also become the driving factor in changing the global narrative of international policing in crises. Tussles and rivalries are hampering the established regimes of nuclear non-proliferation. In such circumstances, states with potential capabilities then try to pursue policies independent of international oversight and inspection in a classical text known as Anarchy – which will further destabilize global peace and order.
The author is a Research Officer at Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN), BUITEMS, Quetta.
Erosion of trust how global instability fuels the nuclear arms race?
