=Nusrat Mirza
According to a recent RAND (Research and Development) Corporation report, China’s multifaceted expansion into South America poses significant challenges to U.S. interests in the region. China is reshaping alliances and diminishing American influence through increased economic ties, military cooperation, and strategic use of information warfare.
Economic expansion: a 26-fold increase in trade
Over the past 24 years, trade between China and South American countries has surged 26-fold. This economic boom is not merely a byproduct of globalization but a strategic effort by China to secure natural resources, open new markets for its goods, and establish itself as a dominant economic partner in the region. Investments in infrastructure projects, such as ports, railways, and energy facilities, have further solidified China’s economic foothold.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has extended its reach into South America, with several countries signing on to benefit from Chinese financing and development expertise. While these projects promise economic growth, they often have significant debt obligations and increased Chinese influence over domestic policies.
Military influence: a growing concern
China’s military engagement in South America has also intensified. China is fostering closer ties with regional militaries through arms sales, joint military exercises, and training programs. This enhances China’s strategic reach and provides opportunities to gather intelligence and establish a presence near U.S. borders.
Establishing China’s first overseas military base in Djibouti has raised concerns about potential similar moves in South America. While no official bases have been announced, increased port calls by Chinese naval vessels and discussions about space tracking stations indicate a growing military interest.
The three Warfares: Psychological, Media, and Legal
The RAND report highlights America’s concern over China’s deployment of the “Three Warfares” strategy in South America:
- Psychological warfare:
China is leveraging cultural exchanges, educational programs, and diplomatic engagements to shape public perception and promote its image as a benevolent global leader. Confucius Institutes and scholarships for South American students to study in China are examples of soft power tactics aimed at winning hearts and minds.
- Media warfare:
Control over information is a critical component of China’s strategy. By investing in local media outlets, providing content, and training journalists, China is influencing the media landscape to favor its narratives. This includes downplaying negative news about China and promoting stories highlighting the benefits of partnership with China.
- Legal warfare:
Also known as “lawfare,” this involves using international and domestic laws to achieve strategic objectives. China is engaging in legal agreements and treaties that serve its interests, often at the expense of U.S. influence. China gains leverage over other nations by shaping the legal frameworks within which international relations operate.
Impact on communities and governments
China’s strategies have had a profound impact on both communities and governments across South America. Economically, Chinese investments have created jobs and infrastructure, leading to concerns about labor practices, environmental degradation, and debt dependency. Politically, China’s non-interference policy appeals to governments wary of U.S. criticism of human rights and democratic governance. These dynamics are causing shifts in traditional alliances. Countries that were once steadfast U.S. partners are now engaging more closely with China, sometimes at the expense of relations with the United States. This realignment challenges American military strategies, which rely on regional cooperation and support.
America’s response: struggling to compete
The United States finds itself in a difficult position. China’s counter-narrative is strong, emphasizing mutual benefit, respect for sovereignty, and economic development without political strings attached. In contrast, U.S. policies are sometimes viewed as interventionist or conditional, which can be less appealing to South American nations.
Efforts to counter China’s influence have included proposing alternative investment initiatives, reinforcing diplomatic ties, and promoting democratic values. However, these measures have had limited success in matching the scale and appeal of China’s offerings.
Conclusion
China’s increased military and economic influence in South America represents a strategic challenge for the United States. China is reshaping the geopolitical landscape in its favor by employing a combination of economic incentives and sophisticated information warfare. The U.S. must reassess its approach to the region, considering both the needs of South American countries and the broader implications for international security and influence.
The author is the Chief Editor of Monthly Interaction.
