Dr. S. Bushra Batool
The Taiwan Strait, a narrow body of water separating Taiwan from mainland China, has long been a flashpoint for geopolitical tension. Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), maintains a democratically elected government and a population of roughly 23 million people. On the other hand, mainland China, officially the People’s Republic of China (PRC), operates under the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which asserts that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory, despite never having governed the island.
For decades, Beijing has viewed Taiwan as a renegade province, promising to eventually reunite the island with the mainland, through peaceful means if possible, or by force if necessary. Tensions between the two have escalated in recent years, particularly as China has modernized its military and ramped up its presence in the region. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s political landscape has shifted, with more recent leaders hailing from parties that strongly oppose the notion of unification under Chinese rule.
These rising tensions have far-reaching implications, particularly for the United States (US). The US has long maintained an unofficial but vital relationship with Taiwan, and there are growing concerns that a conflict over Taiwan could draw the US into a large-scale, costly war with China. The situation has become even more complicated with the recent election of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, and the changing dynamics within the broader US-China relationship.
Historical context and the “one China” debate
The roots of the current dispute can be traced back to the Chinese Civil War, which raged in the first half of the 20th century. After the Nationalist government, led by Chiang Kai-shek, was defeated by Mao Zedong’s Communist forces in 1949, Chiang and his supporters retreated to Taiwan, where they continued to claim legitimacy as the government of all of China. Meanwhile, the PRC, led by the CCP, took control of mainland China.
For several decades, Taiwan and the PRC operated under two separate governments, both of which claimed to be the legitimate authority over China. Throughout this period, the US backed Taiwan, viewing it as an important ally in the region, particularly during the Cold War. However, in the 1970s, the US shifted its policy toward China, culminating in the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1979. This shift led to the establishment of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which allows the US to maintain an unofficial relationship with Taiwan and provide defense support, but it also acknowledges the Chinese stance that Taiwan is part of China.
Central to Beijing’s position is the “One China” policy, which asserts that there is only one China, and Taiwan is a part of it. This policy has been a cornerstone of PRC diplomacy, and under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has made clear its intent to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. In 1992, the PRC and Taiwan agreed to the “1992 Consensus,” a framework that was meant to serve as the basis for cross-strait relations. However, the consensus has remained contentious, with both sides interpreting it differently. For Beijing, it reflects an agreement that both sides belong to one China and must work toward reunification. In contrast, Taiwan’s opposition parties, particularly the Nationalist Party (KMT), have claimed it simply means “one China, with different interpretations.” In essence, Taiwan has not fully embraced the notion that it is part of China under any circumstances.
Diverging political views in Taiwan
Within Taiwan, there is a significant debate regarding the island’s relationship with China. The KMT, which once ruled Taiwan, maintains that Taiwan should remain part of China under “one country, two systems” arrangement, similar to the one that was proposed for Hong Kong. However, this model has lost favor in Taiwan, especially after China’s increasing crackdown on Hong Kong’s freedoms, which has made the idea of reunification under such terms deeply unpopular. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the current ruling party in Taiwan, rejects the notion that Taiwan is part of China. This stance has been championed by former President Tsai Ing-wen, who during her presidency, emphasized Taiwan’s sovereignty and independence. While Tsai sought to maintain a workable relationship with China, she strongly opposed the “one country, two systems” framework, citing Beijing’s actions in Hong Kong as evidence of its inability to respect Taiwanese autonomy.
The election of Lai Ching-te in 2024 has brought further polarization to cross-strait relations. Although Lai has called for dialogue with China and a “status quo” approach to cross-strait relations, Beijing has accused him of advocating for Taiwan’s independence. In a recent National Day address, Lai reiterated that the PRC has no right to represent Taiwan, while emphasizing the need for “healthy dialogue” between the two sides. Beijing quickly condemned his remarks, viewing them as a provocation.
The US role in cross-strait relations
The United States plays a crucial role in the on-going Taiwan-China conflict. While not officially recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state, the US has long provided military aid and political support to the island. The US follows a policy known as “strategic ambiguity,” which is intended to deter both Beijing from attacking Taiwan and Taiwan from declaring independence unilaterally.
The US relationship with Taiwan is governed by the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), passed in 1979, which mandates that the US maintain a robust unofficial relationship with Taiwan, including selling arms for self-defense. While the US acknowledges China’s claim over Taiwan, it does not recognize Beijing’s sovereignty over the island. The US policy has allowed for a significant arms trade with Taiwan and continues to participate in military training and strategic maneuvers in the region.
Despite the policy of strategic ambiguity, US officials have increasingly made statements suggesting a commitment to defending Taiwan in the event of an attack. President Joe Biden has stated on multiple occasions that the US would come to Taiwan’s defense, although his administration has walked back these statements to maintain the policy’s ambiguity. Under President Donald Trump’s previous government, US-Taiwan relations were strengthened, with the sale of billions of dollars in arms and increased diplomatic exchanges. The Biden administration has also deepened military support for Taiwan, including measures to increase arms sales and provide greater military aid.
Economic and military considerations
Despite the political tensions, China remains the top trade partner of Taiwan. The economic relationship between China and Taiwan remains deeply intertwined, despite the political tensions. Taiwan’s economy, the 22nd largest in the world, relies heavily on trade with China, its largest trading partner. However, there is growing concern in Taiwan about over reliance on Chinese markets, particularly given the increasing pressure from Beijing.
In response, Taiwan has sought to diversify its economic relationships, with investments in the US rising in recent years. For the US, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is a critical concern. Taiwan manufactures the world’s most advanced microchips, which are essential for a wide range of industries. The US has been working to strengthen its domestic chip production capabilities to reduce its dependence on Taiwan, especially in light of China’s growing assertiveness in the region.
The road ahead
The future of Taiwan and its relationship with China remains uncertain. Experts have a divided view on when, or even if, China will attempt to reunify with Taiwan through military force. Some analysts predict an invasion within the next decade, while others believe that the timeline is further off. The year 2049, marking the 100th anniversary of the PRC’s founding, has been seen as a potential deadline for unification, with President Xi Jinping making it clear that Taiwan’s integration into China is crucial to his vision of the “Chinese Dream.” The situation is further complicated by global events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Some analysts argue that the conflict in Ukraine could embolden Beijing to take similar action against Taiwan, while others believe it may have a cautionary effect, given the challenges Russia has faced. In conclusion, cross-strait relations are not only a critical issue for China and Taiwan but also a key area of concern for the United States. The US must navigate its policy toward Taiwan carefully, balancing its commitments to Taiwan’s defense with its diplomatic and economic ties to China. The outcome of this geopolitical standoff will have far-reaching consequences for the stability of the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
The author is a Research Officer at Rabita Forum International (RFI).
