Kanwar Khalid Ali Khan
The anticipated visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Pakistan is a significant event that could reshape the dynamics of bilateral relations and have broader implications in the regional geopolitical landscape.
Here’s a commentary considering various scenarios, including Pakistan’s relations with the U.S., developments within BRICS, and the roles of China, Iran, India, and other regional players.
Pakistan Saudi Arabia relations
Historical Context
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia share deep-rooted historical ties based on religious, cultural, and economic links. Saudi Arabia has historically supported Pakistan through financial aid, oil supplies, and diplomatic backing.
Economic Cooperation
The visit is expected to enhance economic cooperation, particularly in sectors like energy, infrastructure, and agriculture. This could lead to significant Saudi investments, which are crucial for Pakistan’s economic recovery.
Pakistan-American relations
Shifting Alliances
Pakistan’s relationship with the U.S. has been fluctuating, particularly following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and changing geopolitical priorities. While the U.S. remains a critical partner, Pakistan’s increasing reliance on China and Saudi Arabia may complicate its ties with Washington.
Strategic Interests
The U.S. is interested in countering Chinese influence in the region, and Pakistan’s strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia could be viewed as a strategic pivot. The U.S. may seek to reinforce its relationship with Pakistan to ensure it remains an ally in counter-terrorism and regional stability.
Brics developments
Emerging Economies
The expansion of BRICS, which now includes several emerging economies, presents both opportunities and challenges for Pakistan. As BRICS nations look to enhance economic cooperation, Pakistan might find new avenues for trade and investment outside traditional Western partnerships.
China’s Role
China’s involvement in BRICS and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could further entrench Pakistan’s economic ties with Beijing. However, this might also create a competitive dynamic with Saudi investments, particularly in infrastructure and energy.
China-Pakistan relations
Strategic Partnership
Pakistan’s close relationship with China, exemplified by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), provides a counterbalance to its ties with Saudi Arabia. However, the challenge lies in managing these relationships without alienating either partner.
Economic Dependencies
While Chinese investment is critical for Pakistan’s development, excessive reliance on China could lead to economic vulnerabilities, making diversification of partnerships essential.
Iran’s perspective
Regional Rivalry
Iran views Saudi Arabia as a regional rival, and Pakistan’s deepening ties with Riyadh could complicate Islamabad’s relationship with Tehran. Pakistan must navigate its historical ties with Iran carefully, especially concerning border security and ethnic tensions in Balochistan.
Potential Cooperation
Despite rivalries, there is potential for cooperation in areas like trade and energy, provided both nations can manage their geopolitical differences.
India’s position
Geopolitical Concerns
India closely monitors Pakistan-Saudi relations, viewing any strengthening of ties as a potential threat. India may respond by enhancing its own relationships with Gulf nations, particularly in trade and security.
Counterbalancing Strategies
India’s engagement with Iran and its strategic partnership with the U.S. could be leveraged to counterbalance Saudi influence in the region.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
Strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia could lead to enhanced collaboration within the GCC, providing Pakistan with greater access to Gulf markets and investment. The upcoming visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Pakistan is poised to be a pivotal moment for both nations. It offers an opportunity to strengthen economic ties and enhance cooperation across various sectors.
However, Pakistan must tread carefully, balancing its relationships with Saudi Arabia, the U.S., China, Iran, and India to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape effectively. The success of this visit will depend on Pakistan’s ability to leverage its historical ties while adapting to the evolving regional dynamics.
