Khushboo Farid Khan Ghouri
China and Pakistan often referred to as strategic brother shared a friendship that is both deep and strategic from infrastructure projects like CPEC to military cooperation. Their partnership is vital to the Region’s stability over the decades. Their relationship has grown from the shared interest in balancing Regional Power to a robust partnership that spans economic, defense, and diplomatic spheres. China has invested billions in Pakistan’s economy and development while Pakistan serves as a key Ally for the China in the region providing access to the critical sea routes. The relationship between China and Pakistan has been described as a bond of iron, forged through decades of cooperation and mutual trust. From strategic partnerships to economic collaborations, a Pentagon report claims China considers Pakistan as it’s only ‘all weather strategic partner’.
However, October’s deadly terrorist attack in Karachi, marking yet another disturbing incident in a series of violent attacks targeting Chinese citizens and projects in Pakistan, raises critical questions about the sustainability and security of this strategic partnership. The separatist Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) took the responsibility for the terrorist attack, which has previously targeted Chinese nationals in Pakistan. While the bond between the two nations remains robust, this event reveals underlying tensions that could shape the future of Chinese investments and diplomatic ties in the region.
The recurring attacks, particularly by groups such as the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), signal that militancy targeting Chinese interests is not a one-off occurrence but a persistent threat. The militants and other ethnic Baloch factions see CPEC as a form of exploitation and a means for Pakistan’s government to assert control over marginalized regions such as Baluchistan. As a result, it has repeatedly attacked Chinese nationals in Pakistan, arguing that ethnic Baloch locals were not earning a fair share of revenue from foreign investments in the province and natural resources exploited there. These attacks on Chinese individuals are both the political and financial in nature. These groups aim not only to disrupt CPEC but also to send a message to both Beijing and Islamabad about their discontent with the current state of affairs in the region.
There is no secret that China and Pakistan have shared a close strategic partnership for decades, one that is multidimensional and anchored in economic cooperation, military assistance, and geopolitical alignment. The cornerstone of this relationship, in recent years, has been the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $60 billion infrastructure development project that serves as the flagship initiative of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For Pakistan, CPEC is essential to boosting its infrastructure, economic development, and energy security. For China, it represents a vital connection between Xinjiang and the Arabian Sea, providing access to critical global trade routes.
Nonetheless, CPEC is also seen as a magnet for various militant groups, particularly Baloch separatists and Islamist extremists, who oppose China’s presence in the region. In recent years, a string of deadly attacks have specifically targeted Chinese nationals working on CPEC projects, which highlights a security dilemma that neither China nor Pakistan can afford to ignore.
The killing of Chinese nationals in Karachi brings to the forefront the vulnerability of China’s workforce and infrastructure projects in Pakistan. Chinese workers are essential to the success of CPEC, and their security has become a key concern for both nations. While Pakistan has created a dedicated security force named the Special Security Division (SSD), to protect CPEC projects and Chinese nationals, these incidents reveal gaps in the effectiveness of current security protocols.
For Pakistan, this incident puts immense pressure on its government to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals and safeguard CPEC projects. China’s growing economic investments in Pakistan are vital to the country’s economic growth, particularly as Pakistan faces a severe economic crisis exacerbated by inflation, external debt, and political instability. Therefore, Pakistan cannot afford to lose Chinese trust or jeopardize these investments.
In the immediate aftermath of such attacks, Pakistan is likely to ramp up security for Chinese nationals and infrastructure, potentially leading to enhanced security cooperation between the two countries. This could include joint counterterrorism measures, intelligence sharing, and even the possibility of a more active Chinese security presence in Pakistan, though such a move would be diplomatically sensitive given Pakistan’s domestic security concerns.
Furthermore, Pakistan may be pressured to escalate its military operations against militant groups, especially in Baluchistan, where separatist violence has been a constant challenge. However, this could also create further instability in the region, as heavy-handed responses often fuel grievances among marginalized communities. Balancing the need for security and addressing local discontent will be a difficult but necessary challenge for Pakistan’s leadership.
From Beijing’s perspective, attacks on Chinese nationals could lead to a reassessment of its investment strategy in Pakistan. While China views Pakistan as a vital partner in its BRI vision, the constant threat of violence may cause Chinese investors to become more cautious. This is particularly relevant as China continues to expand its global footprint, with other regions competing for Chinese capital and investment.
That being said, it is unlikely that China will scale back its overall investment in Pakistan or abandon CPEC altogether. The geostrategic significance of CPEC for China, including its role in securing energy supplies and enhancing China’s access to international markets, remains too important for Beijing to ignore. However, delays in project completion, increased costs due to heightened security measures, and a possible decline in the number of Chinese workers willing to work in Pakistan could slow down the pace of the initiative.
The Karachi attack also has wider geopolitical implications. China’s involvement in Pakistan is not viewed favorably by all actors in the region, and its growing footprint through CPEC has attracted the attention of rival powers. India, in particular, has expressed strong objections to CPEC, as it passes through the disputed region of Gilgit-Baltistan, which India claims as part of Jammu and Kashmir.
Additionally, the increased involvement of militant groups targeting Chinese interests could further complicate the regional security environment, potentially drawing in other stakeholders such as Afghanistan’s Taliban regime or external powers concerned with rising instability in South Asia.
The killing of Chinese nationals in Karachi is a grim reminder of the complex security challenges facing China-Pakistan cooperation. While the strategic partnership between the two nations is unlikely to be fundamentally shaken, the incident places the ‘All-Weather Strategic Partners’ under strain and will inevitably force both Beijing and Islamabad to reevaluate their security arrangements and the long-term feasibility of Chinese investments in the region. Moreover, the current wave of terrorism in Pakistan threatens not only the safety of Chinese citizens but also the broader economic and geopolitical cooperation between the two countries. Addressing this security dilemma requires a multifaceted, strategic approach that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, and economic tools.
For Pakistan, the challenge lies in addressing the root causes of militancy and ensuring that its counterterrorism measures do not alienate local populations further, especially in volatile regions like Baluchistan. For China, the challenge will be maintaining confidence in its investments while pushing for more stringent security measures to protect its citizens and projects.
The future of the China-Pakistan strategic partnership hinges on how effectively both nations can navigate these security challenges without undermining the economic and geopolitical goals that bind them together.
The author is Teaching Associate & Ph.D. Scholar, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi.
