Ms. Khushboo Farid Khan Ghouri
The power rivalry among global major powers has consistently relied on the strategic security landscape. Over time, warfare has evolved with advancements in weapons and technology. In the 20th century, nuclear weapons shifted competition from conventional to unconventional strategic competition. The 21st century brought another revolution with the rise of cyber warfare. Today, Beijing, Moscow, and Washington compete across all domains, with cyberspace now the fifth battlefield. The U.S., Russia, and China heavily rely on cyberspace for military operations, fueling a cyber arms race and ongoing strategic competition in this domain. Moreover in the 21st century, cyber warfare has become a central element in modern military strategy. As technological advancements accelerate, states have recognized the power of cyber operations as both a tool for offense and defense. The fusion of military doctrine with cyber capabilities is reshaping how conflicts are fought, not only in the physical domain but also in the invisible realm of cyberspace.
Governments and militaries worldwide now recognize that cyber warfare offers asymmetric advantages, allowing states to launch attacks without direct confrontation, often with plausible deniability. State-sponsored cyber-attacks have prompted nations to reconsider their military doctrines. Integrating cyber capabilities into defense strategies shows that future conflicts will heavily involve cyberspace. Military doctrines now emphasize the need for cyber defense, offense, and resilience. Russia, China, and the U.S. have been at the forefront of this development, each employing unique cyber strategies tailored to their military and geopolitical objectives.
Russia has long been recognized as a key player in cyber warfare, adopting strategies that blend conventional military operations with cyber-attacks to achieve political and strategic goals. The Russian model of cyber warfare emphasizes information warfare, where the intent is to manipulate public perception, sow discord, and weaken adversary morale. Russia’s use of Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups, such as Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear, highlights its focus on espionage, disinformation, and election interference. Key operations, such as the 2016 U.S. election meddling and the NotPetya ransomware attack, demonstrate how Russian cyber capabilities are integrated into its military doctrine.
Furthermore, Russia also uses cyber warfare as a tool for hybrid warfare, where cyber-attacks are synchronized with conventional military actions. This approach was clearly observed during the Russo-Georgian War in 2008 and the recent Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The cyber dimensions of these conflicts show how Russia blends hacking, disinformation campaigns, and psychological operations to destabilize adversaries, gain strategic leverage, and influence international perceptions of the conflict.
On the other hand, China’s approach to cyber warfare is heavily influenced by its ambition to become a dominant global power. China has built advanced cyber capabilities through the PLA’s Strategic Support Force, which manages military cyber operations. China prioritizes espionage and intellectual property theft, seeking to undermine U.S. military and economic superiority. Cyber-enabled espionage operations, such as Operation Cloud Hopper Chinese Spy Balloon incident, and the APT10 group, illustrate China’s persistent efforts to steal sensitive defense information from Western industries and governments.
China’s doctrine of “Active Defense” guides its cyber strategy, blending defensive postures with preemptive cyber strikes. The Chinese government sees cyber warfare as an essential component of broader strategic operations, enhancing its ability to conduct network warfare, gain battlefield awareness, and neutralize enemy capabilities. The focus is not only on traditional military assets but also on civilian infrastructure, as demonstrated by China’s attacks on the U.S. energy grid and telecommunications networks.
Instead, The United States has acknowledged cyber warfare as a critical domain of national defense and offense. The U.S. Department of Defense has articulated its cyber strategy under the notion of “persistent engagement” and “defend forward,” where cyber operations are proactively conducted to disrupt potential threats before they materialize. U.S. Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) plays a pivotal role in executing these operations, targeting adversaries’ military and civilian infrastructures to mitigate threats in real-time.
The U.S. has conducted significant cyber campaigns, including Stuxnet, a malware attack that disrupted Iran’s nuclear program in 2010. This operation exemplifies how cyber tools can achieve strategic objectives without resorting to kinetic warfare. U.S. doctrine now includes using cyber capabilities as a tool to support conventional military operations, as seen in operations against ISIS, where cyber-attacks were used to disable communication channels and disrupt command structures.
As the great powers of the world, the United States, Russia, and China are deeply engaged in a cyber struggle that has far-reaching implications for international security. This rivalry transcends traditional military engagements and enters domains such as cyber espionage, cyber deterrence, and global infrastructure manipulation.
China has extensively targeted U.S. companies and government institutions in attempts to acquire intellectual property, defense blueprints, and trade secrets. This theft of intellectual capital has not only heightened tensions between the two powers but also impacted the global economic order. The U.S. indictments of Chinese hackers, particularly from groups like APT41, underscore the scale of this cyber espionage. In response, the U.S. has enhanced its cybersecurity capabilities and increased cooperation with allies to counter Chinese cyber influence, establishing frameworks for collective cyber defense.
However, Cyber deterrence between the U.S. and China remains fragile, mainly due to the secrecy surrounding cyber capabilities and the challenge of attributing attacks to specific state actors. Both countries have developed a posture of mutually assured destruction in cyberspace, where a significant cyber-attack could escalate into broader conflict. The stakes are high: cyber warfare between these superpowers could destabilize global supply chains, disrupt financial markets, and damage critical infrastructure, making international cooperation on cyber norms and rules of engagement imperative for future stability.
The Russo-Ukrainian War highlights how cyber warfare integrates into broader military campaigns. Both sides use cyber-attacks to disrupt operations, target civilian infrastructure, and shape international narratives. Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, such as BlackEnergy (2015) and Industroyer (2016), disrupted critical infrastructure, while the 2022 Viasat attack disabled communication systems ahead of the invasion, showcasing the link between cyber and kinetic warfare.
Russia’s cyber strategy in Ukraine displays unusual patterns, with destructive attacks appearing more focused on destabilizing Ukraine than achieving specific military goals. The NotPetya attack, for instance, spread indiscriminately, impacting global companies beyond Ukraine. These chaotic attacks raise concerns about Russia’s control over its cyber tools and its tolerance for collateral damage.
Ukraine has demonstrated impressive cyber resilience, quickly recovering from attacks with help from Western cybersecurity firms and NATO allies, who have provided defense tools and intelligence. This collaboration underscores the trend of international partnerships in cyber warfare. The conflict suggests potential future directions for cyber warfare, including its integration into conventional military strategies or the creation of cyber defense coalitions similar to NATO.
Cyber warfare is transforming modern military strategy by providing states with new tools for achieving strategic objectives. The experiences of the U.S., China, and Russia demonstrate the power of cyber-attacks to influence military doctrines, disrupt adversaries, and shape global security. As cyber capabilities continue to evolve, the need for international norms, cooperation, and cyber deterrence mechanisms will be crucial in preventing escalation and maintaining global stability. Cyber warfare’s implications for the future of conflict are profound, suggesting that the cyber domain will remain a central battleground for state actors in the decades to come.
The author is a Ph.D. Scholar and Teaching Associate at the Department of International Relations, University of Karachi.
