Wajeeha Najam
Hybrid warfare, a sophisticated blend of conventional and unconventional strategies, has become a significant challenge in the 21st century. This form of conflict combines traditional military tactics with irregular warfare, cyber operations, psychological warfare, economic and political subversion, and the use of proxies and non-state actors. While hybrid warfare itself is not new, advancements in technology and rapid information dissemination through digital platforms have elevated its prominence. Both state and non-state actors utilize these hybrid strategies to achieve political goals without direct military confrontation. Pakistan, with its strategic location and complex geopolitical environment, offers a compelling case study of the challenges posed by hybrid warfare.
Pakistan’s experience with hybrid warfare is deeply influenced by its geopolitical position, bordering Afghanistan, Iran, China, and India. This strategic location makes Pakistan a focal point for regional and international power dynamics, resulting in various hybrid threats. Key manifestations of these threats include terrorism, insurgency, cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, and proxy warfare.
The use of non-state actors and militant groups to destabilize Pakistan has been a persistent issue. Groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatist organizations have engaged in acts of terrorism with alleged support from hostile states. The TTP, for instance, has carried out numerous attacks across Pakistan, including the devastating 2014 assault on the Army Public School in Peshawar, which resulted in over 150 fatalities, most of whom were children. This attack served not only as a brutal act of terrorism but also as a psychological operation aimed at undermining public confidence in the state’s ability to protect its citizens.
Cyber warfare has become a critical component of hybrid threats against Pakistan. The country has experienced numerous cyber-attacks targeting government institutions, military infrastructure, and critical sectors like banking and energy. A notable example is the 2019 cyber-attack on Pakistan’s banking system, where hackers stole millions of dollars, exposing significant vulnerabilities in the country’s cyber infrastructure.
Disinformation campaigns and propaganda are also significant aspects of hybrid warfare. Social media platforms have become a battleground for spreading fake news and propaganda, which can exacerbate social and religious divides. During the COVID-19 pandemic, misinformation about the virus and vaccines rapidly spread across Pakistan, leading to vaccine hesitancy and public confusion. Such disinformation campaigns are often orchestrated by external actors seeking to destabilize the country by exploiting existing societal fractures.
Economic coercion is another hybrid warfare tactic, where efforts to undermine Pakistan’s economy through sanctions, trade manipulation, and financial measures have been observed. For example, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) placed Pakistan on its “grey list” in 2018 due to deficiencies in anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing measures. This designation led to increased scrutiny, reduced investment, and higher borrowing costs for Pakistan, significantly impacting its economy.
Proxy warfare has long complicated Pakistan’s security landscape. The country’s involvement in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion and the subsequent conflict contributed to the proliferation of militant groups that later turned against the state. These groups, often supported by regional actors, have posed a continuous threat to Pakistan’s stability, draining its military and economic resources.
Hybrid warfare presents unique legal challenges that complicate traditional conflict and response mechanisms. The nature of hybrid threats blurs the lines between war and peace, combatants and non-combatants, and state and non-state actors. One major challenge is the difficulty of attribution. Identifying the source of cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, or proxy support is often challenging. For instance, when Pakistan’s government websites were defaced in a coordinated cyber-attack, it was hard to determine whether the attackers were state actors, non-state actors, or individuals. Without clear attribution, holding perpetrators accountable under international law becomes problematic.
The principle of state sovereignty is also tested when non-state actors operate across borders, complicating jurisdictional issues. Hybrid warfare blurs the distinction between combatants and civilians, making it difficult to apply International Humanitarian Law (IHL). Non-state actors, who do not follow conventional warfare rules, pose a challenge to enforcing IHL. Additionally, cyber-attacks and disinformation tactics, while not involving physical violence, can have severe humanitarian impacts. International law currently lacks a comprehensive framework for regulating cyber warfare. Although principles like state sovereignty and non-intervention apply, there is no specific legal framework for cyber-attacks. Pakistan’s domestic legal framework also needs updating to address cyber threats and protect critical infrastructure. For example, while the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) addresses cyber crime, it needs continual updates to keep pace with evolving threats.
Hybrid warfare often involves terrorism as a tactic. Pakistan has enacted various counter-terrorism laws, such as the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) of 1997, to combat terrorism. However, the effectiveness of these laws is challenged by the evolving nature of hybrid threats. The use of proxy groups and non-state actors complicates the enforcement of counter-terrorism laws. Balancing national security with human rights is a significant challenge; measures to counter disinformation and cyber threats may infringe on civil liberties, such as freedom of expression and privacy. For example, internet shutdowns and censorship during unrest raise concerns about freedom of speech.
Addressing the complex challenges posed by hybrid warfare requires a comprehensive approach. Pakistan needs to strengthen its legal frameworks, enhance cybersecurity, build societal resilience, and engage in international cooperation.
By updating domestic laws, investing in cybersecurity, and participating in international discussions to develop global norms, Pakistan can better counter hybrid threats. Additionally, fostering public awareness and ensuring human rights protections are crucial for an effective response.
The author is Research Officer at Rabita Forum International.
