Bushra Batool
For more than four decades now, Afghanistan has been plunged into the plight of insurgencies, civil war, economic crisis, socio-political instability, foreign interventions, food insecurity, and human rights exploitation, among others. Consequently, the internal displacement and migration of Afghan people into neighboring countries have been a frequent exercise.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) provides a number of registered Afghan refugees in its neighboring countries and Iran and Pakistan are the biggest recipients among others. The graphical representation is given here:
The recent drive of Pakistan to expel 1.7 million undocumented Afghan refugees living in Pakistan, citing security concerns, might be justified from Pakistan’s viewpoint; it is however engaging international criticism including from the United States. In a recent visit of Army Chief General Asim Muneer to the US, many areas of enhancing cooperation were discussed including defense, and counter-terrorism particularly issues related to Afghanistan.
After the 2021 US forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, any common ground for collaboration is yet to be seen. Although the threat of extremism is a common concern, it appears that there is a lack of consensus on how to tackle the situation when it comes to Afghanistan, this time.
Recently, the wave of terrorist incidents in Pakistan has intensified. The killing of 23 troops in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province is one of such instances claimed by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) since 2021. Pakistan wants the US’s assistance to fight extremism emanating from within and outside its borders and cites elements from Afghanistan as facilitators for TTP terrorist activities in Pakistan.
Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar on one occasion mentioned that there has been a 60% increase in terrorism and a 500% spike in terrorist bombing attacks in Pakistan since August 2021 when Afghan Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan. In another instance, the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) in Pakistan Security Report 2023 published that 82% of terrorism-related deaths in Pakistan in the year 2023 resulted from attacks perpetrated by three groups, TTP and its subsidiaries are among them.
Although the US is aware of the severity of the insecurity Pakistan is going through, as indicated by Tom West, US special representative for Afghanistan, during his visit to Pakistan in December, no decisive commitment or policy implementation from the US to curb this challenge is seen as of yet.
It seems that the US has less of an incentive to partner with Pakistan this time as far as terrorism is concerned, rather there is constant pressure on Pakistan to reconsider its policy of evacuation of undocumented Afghans, or at least give them some time especially those who have received the letter of protection from the US Embassy in Islamabad. Some 25,000 Afghans have so far received the letter of protection and are being processed for their resettlement in the US.
The evacuation drive has further added friction to bilateral Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. In recent developments however, an attempt to thaw their bilateral relations is seen in which the leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), also known as JUI (F), Maulana Fazlur Rahman paid an official visit to Afghanistan upon the invitation of the Afghan government. There is a reason why Fazlur Rahman was chosen by the Taliban-led government to visit Afghanistan.
Since the 1980s, the former has enjoyed cordial relations with the Afghan Taliban and had been a steadfast advocate for Afghan Mujahedeen in their resistance against the Afghan republic and the network of US-led coalition forces present in Afghanistan. Fazlur Rahman has also raised his voice against the deportation of undocumented Afghan nationals from Pakistan and deemed it a source of problems between the two countries. Additionally, both Fazlur Rahman and the Taliban shared views about the implementation of sharia at the state level to run state affairs.
The main agenda of Fazlur Rahman’s visit to Afghanistan during which he met with the Ameer Ul Monineen- Mulla Haibatullah Akhundzada, the Interim Prime Minister- Mullah Hassan Akhund and the Deputy Prime Minister- Maulana Abdul Kabir among others, was to overcome the trust deficit between the two countries and restore it. This could only be achieved when the Afghan Taliban somehow manage to reduce the threat of TTP and that Afghanistan had to make a choice between TTP and Pakistan. Fazlur Rehman was supposed to convey Pakistan’s rhetoric to Afghan Taliban to help ease TTP tension.
Fazlur Rahman was given the assurance that there was no presence of TTP hideouts in Afghanistan, which remains a point of contention between the two countries, and that the issue of TTP is an internal problem of Pakistan.
The claim was however busted with the fact that Fazlur Rahman himself held a meeting with Noor Wali Mehsud, Chief TTP and Hafiz Gul Bahadur, TTP leader and former member of JUI-F, in Afghanistan. Moreover in a recent instance, numerous TTP militants including Azmat Lala and Maulvi Faqeer were reported to attend inauguration of a madrasa in Kunar province of Afghanistan.
The issue of TTP-linked terrorism and Afghanistan’s involvement has economic repercussions too. As highlighted by Afghan acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi who also part of the meeting with Fazlur Rehman, highlighted the issues Afghan traders are facing during frequent border closure. Pakistan’s requirement of valid passport and visa for Afghan drivers entering into Afghanistan carrying traded goods rendered it difficult for hundreds of trucks and other cargo vehicles stranded on Torkham border to enter into Pakistan.
Although extension till the end of March for Afghan drivers without documentations is given, the issue has only been delayed and not resolved. Muttaqi’s view that economic relations should not be compromised for political reasons resonate with the fact that Pakistan already has a crippling economy and provided the fact that Afghanistan is one of its major trading partners, this issue would further slowdown Pakistan’s economy and would make it more difficult to cater domestic demand.
Trade Map data indicates that only in 2022, Pakistan imported $957,992 worth of goods from Afghanistan which makes 57.57% of the total exports of Afghanistan to the world. If Pakistan choose to keep the borders closed for trades, it would be difficult to cater the demand of people domestically. Moreover, this would also undermine Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan.
In another move, Pakistan’s Ministry of Commerce has banned transition of various goods via Pakistan into Afghanistan which include fabrics, tyres, black tea, home appliances, toiletries, cosmetics, and nuts, rendering them “prone to smuggling”. For some other products, Pakistan has tightened the criteria for Afghan transit commercial goods via Pakistan and imposed a 10% ad valorem on goods, the major categories include confectionery and chocolates, footwear, machinery (mechanical and electrical), blankets as well as home textiles and garments.
Keeping in view the upcoming general elections in the country especially at a time when the country is already going through political, economic and security crisis, Pakistan should be particularly cautious in designing its policies towards its neighbors. Afghanistan apart, Pakistan is already facing a hostile neighbor in East.
Additionally, the recent diplomatic standoff between Iran and Pakistan following Iran’s January 16 strikes in Baluchistan and Pakistan’s subsequent response is another security concern for the region which is already crippling due to Gaza catastrophe though Pakistan and Iran after a short episode of hostility have agreed to opt for conflict de-escalation and announced return of their representative in respective countries by 26th of January. China enjoys extensive military and economic ties with both Pakistan and Iran and put efforts in normalizing relations, it is yet to be seen to what extent Pakistan would succeed managing the bitterness at borders.
Pakistan and the Taliban government in Afghanistan are currently undergoing tough diplomatic patch and the border restrictions with Afghanistan may additionally cost Pakistan to bear the cost on economic front.
Afghan Taliban, one of the mediators of 2022 TTP-Pakistan negotiations, are in view of managing the TTP issue with Pakistan through negotiations but direct negotiation is not a favorable option for Pakistan. Afghanistan may ask Pakistan to stop evicting undocumented Afghan refugees and ease in restrictions for Afghan traders as a precondition for peace.
This is the time for Pakistan to have all the calculations done keeping in view that the country is already undergoing overlapping challenges including economic, political and security, ahead of the general elections. Moreover, the country should try to manage resentments with its neighbors, wherever possible, keeping the national interests intact.
The author is a Research Officer at Rabita Forum International (RFI).
